Unveiling causal connections: Long-term particulate matter exposure and type 2 diabetes mellitus mortality in Southern China.

Evidence of the potential causal links between long-term exposure to particulate matters (PM, i.e., PM1, PM2.5, and PM1-2.5) and T2DM mortality based on large cohorts is limited. In contrast, the existing evidence usually suffers from inherent bias with the traditional association assessment. A prospective cohort of 580,757 participants in the southern region of China were recruited during 2009 and 2015 and followed up through December 2020. PM exposure at each residential address was estimated by linking to the well-established high-resolution simulation dataset. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using time-varying marginal structural Cox models, an established causal inference approach, after adjusting for potential confounders. During follow-up, a total of 717 subjects died from T2DM. For every 1 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, the adjusted HRs and 95% confidence interval (CI) for T2DM mortality was 1.036 (1.019-1.053). Similarly, for every 1 µg/m3 increase in PM1 and PM1-2.5, the adjusted HRs and 95% CIs were 1.032 (1.003-1.062) and 1.085 (1.054-1.116), respectively. Additionally, we observed a generally more pronounced impact among individuals with lower levels of education or lower residential greenness which as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We identified substantial interactions between NDVI and PM1 (P-interaction = 0.003), NDVI and PM2.5 (P-interaction = 0.019), as well as education levels and PM1 (P-interaction = 0.049). The study emphasizes the need to consider environmental and socio-economic factors in strategies to reduce T2DM mortality. We found that PM1, PM2.5, and PM1-2.5 heighten the peril of T2DM mortality, with education and green space exposure roles in modifying it.

The impact of long-term PM1 exposure on all-cause mortality and its interaction with BMI: A nationwide prospective cohort study in China.

BACKGROUND: China has a serious air pollution problem and a high prevalence of obesity. The interaction between the two and its impact on all-cause mortality is a public health issue of great concern. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 µm (PM1) and all-cause mortality, as well as the interaction effect of body mass index (BMI) in the association. METHODS: A total of 33,087 participants from 162 counties in 25 provinces in China were included, with annual average PM1 exposure being estimated based on the county address. The PM1-mortality relation was evaluated using the time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, with the dose-response relationship being fitted using the penalized splines. Besides, the potential interaction effect of BMI in the PM1-mortality relation was evaluated. RESULTS: The incidence of all-cause deaths was 76.99 per 10,000 person-years over a median of 8.2 years of follow-up. After controlling for potential confounders, the PM1-mortality relation was approximately J-shaped. The full-adjustment analysis observed the hazard ratio (HR) of all-cause mortality was 1.114 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.017-1.220] corresponding to a 10 µg/m3 rise in PM1 concentration. Further stratified analyses suggested the adverse effects of PM1 might be more pronounced among the underweight. DISCUSSION: Higher PM1 concentrations were associated with an increase in all-cause mortality. The BMI might further alter the relation, and the underweight population was the sensitive subgroup of the population that needed to be protected.